The United States is engaged in multilateral trade negotiations in the WTO to attempt to open new markets, eliminate export subsidies, and reduce trade-distorting domestic support. The recent WTO Dispute Settlement ruling on the US cotton program has focused attention on the impacts that the WTO could have on US farm programs and policy. The United States also is negotiating nine new trade agreements, with the CAFRA-DR agreement being recently sent to Congress. Finally, although North American markets are more highly integrated, recent animal disease outbreaks have disrupted trade and cast doubt on the prospects for future integration. This series of articles examines prospects for progress in the WTO and challenges created by the recent Dispute Settlement ruling, discusses the implications of the Central American-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, and provides an overview of market integration in North America.

The opportunity to build upon the Uruguay Round rules for agriculture and reduce tariffs sharply is not to be passed up lightly. Unless the Modalities become watered down with large loopholes for Sensitive and Special Products, and the reductions in tariffs and subsidies is too modest to put any constraints on farm policies, such an agreement would be useful. To eliminate export subsidies would of itself be a welcome and long-overdue step in improving the agricultural trade system. This paper examines these and other crucial issues affecting the outcome of the Doha Development Agenda.

Relative to other agreements, the impact of CAFTA-DR is likely to be modest. NAFTA was much more significant. The United States will be regaining parity in market access with Mexico and with producers within the Central American Common Market and gaining an advantage (although perhaps temporary) over South American and European suppliers. The authors argue that the CAFTA-DR will impose minimal adjustment costs on the United States.

The WTO looms large in the next farm bill debate. Although some are attempting to downplay the potential impact of the WTO cotton ruling on the future of farm policy, it is difficult to imagine how Congress will be able to ignore compliance issues and the costs of noncompliance as a new farm policy is formulated. This paper examines the results of DS-267 and its implications for the future of US farm policy.

Since the mid-1980s, the pace of North American food market integration has rapidly accelerated. The beef/cattle sector is among the most highly integrated and susceptible to disruptions to trade. With increased market integration, trade disruptions such as BSE have taken on added importance. There is some doubt that market integration will continue on its former path. It also appears likely that new products and marketing systems will emerge in response to adverse trade events.